EdNC has a new article out this week from UNC researchers examining trends in K-12 market share over the past decade. We found it to be pretty interesting, and we think you will, too. It reaffirms a refrain we have heard before: Parents are increasingly seeking out options for their children outside traditional district public schools.
In fact, charter schools’ share of the K-12 market grew by 4% between 2015 and 2024, researchers found.
There are several reasons for the overall shift in market share, according to researchers (Joanne Brosh of UNC’s School of Education and Lisa Carlson of Carolina Demography). In addition to demographic changes, state policies and “external factors” are also reshaping the contours of the K-12 education market, the researchers note.
Here’s an excerpt from the article:
In North Carolina, market share for district public schools (and the alternative educational options) exhibits substantial year to year variation. For example, district public school market share fell sharply from 84% in 2015 to 79% in 2016, only to rebound to 82% in 2017.
… The overall trend, however, is clear: In 2015, 84% of school-age students in North Carolina were served by district public schools while in 2024, districts served 76% — an 8-point decrease in 10 years. Despite fluctuation, there is a consistent overall decrease in enrollment in North Carolina district public schools relative to alternative educational options.
… Between 2015 and 2024, market share grew by 4% for charter schools, 1% for private schools, and 3% for homeschools (Figure 2). While these alternative school options experienced year-to-year fluctuations, they also reflect a broader upward trend.
Read the full article from EdNC.
Here are two graphics from the article.
The first (Figure 1) shows the percentage of the state’s K-12 population enrolled in district public schools between 2015 and 2024.
Declining K-12 market share in district public schools between 2015 and 2024. Source: Joanne Brosh and Lisa Carlson, “Trends in school market share in North Carolina,” EdNC, June 2, 2025.
The second graphic (Figure 2) captures trend lines in market share in other school sectors between 2015 and 2024. The charter trend line is in blue, private school is in orange, and homeschool is in gray.
K-12 market share in alternative school models. Source: Brosh and Carlson, EdNC.
Above: Shutterstock photo.
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